Convertible Arbitrage Definition
It is a long-short trading strategy favored by hedge funds and large-scale traders. Such an approach involves taking a lengthy method in convertible security with a simultaneous short position in the underlying common stock to capitalize on pricing differences between the two securities. Convertible security can be converted into another form, such as a convertible preferred stock, which can be changed from a Convertible Preference share to an Equity share/Common stock.
Why use Convertible Arbitrage Strategy?
The rationale for adopting a convertible arbitrage strategy is that the long-short position enhances the possibility of gains with a relatively lower degree of risk. If the value of the stock declines, the arbitrage trader will benefit from the short positionShort PositionA short position is a practice where the investors sell stocks that they don’t own at the time of selling; the investors do so by borrowing the shares from some other investors to promise that the former will return the stocks to the latter on a later date.read more in the stock since it is equity, and the matter flows in the direction of the market. On the other hand, the convertible bond or Debentures will have limited risks since it is an instrument having a fixed rate of income.
However, if the stock gains, the loss on the short stock position will be capped since the profits on the convertible security will offset it. If the stock is trading at par and not going up or down, the convertible security or the debentureDebentureDebentures refer to long-term debt instruments issued by a government or corporation to meet its financial requirements. In return, investors are compensated with an interest income for being a creditor to the issuer.read more will continue to pay a steady coupon rate, which shall offset the costs of holding the short stock. Another idea behind adopting a convertible arbitrage is that a firm’s convertible bonds are priced inefficiently relative to its stock.
This can be since the firm may lure investors into investing in the debt stock of the firm and hence offer lucrative rates. The ArbitrageArbitrageArbitrage in finance means simultaneous purchasing and selling a security in different markets or other exchanges to generate risk-free profit from the security’s price difference. It involves exploiting market inefficiency to generate profits resulting in different prices to the point where no arbitrage opportunities are left.read more attempts to profit from this pricing error.
Also, look at Accounting for convertible bondsAccounting For Convertible BondsAccounting for Convertibles refers to the accounting of a debt instrument that gives the holder the right to convert his or her holdings into a specified number of the issuing company’s shares. The difference between the fair value of total securities (along with any other consideration transferred) and the fair value of the securities issued is recorded as an expense in the income statement.read more.
What is Hedge Ratio in Convertible Arbitrage?
A critical concept to be familiar with convertible arbitrage is the hedge ratioHedge RatioThe hedge ratio is the open position’s hedge ratio’s comparative value with the position’s aggregate size itself. Also, it can be the comparative value of the futures contracts purchased or sold with a value of cash commodity that is being hedged.read more. This ratio compares the value of the position held through the use of the hedge to the whole place itself.
E.g., if one is holding $10,000 in foreign equity, this does expose the investor to FOREX risk. If the investor decides to hedge $5,000 worth of the equity with a currency position, the hedge ratio is 0.5 (50/100). This culminates that 50% of the equity position is prevented from exchange rate risksExchange Rate RisksExchange Rate Risk is the risk of loss the company bears when the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the company operates. It is a risk that occurs due to a change in the relative values of currencies.read more.
Convertible Arbitrage Risks
Convertible Arbitrage is trickier than it sounds. Since one generally must hold the convertible bonds for a specified amount of time before conversion into equity stock, the arbitrageur/fund manager must evaluate the market carefully and determine in advance if market conditions or any other macroeconomic factorsMacroeconomic FactorsMacroeconomic factors are those that have a broad impact on the national economy, such as population, income, unemployment, investments, savings, and the rate of inflation, and are monitored by highly professional teams governed by the government or other economists.read more can have an impact during the time frame in which conversion is permitted.
For instance, if a fund has acquired a convertible instrument of ABC Co. with a lock-in period of 1 year. However, post one year, the country’s Annual budget will be announced whereby they are expected to impose a 10% Dividend Distribution tax on the dividends declared by the company on the equity shares. Such a measure will impact the market and the question of holding a convertible stock over the long run.
Arbitrageurs can fall victim to unpredictable events without limits to the downside effects. One instance was during 2005, when many arbitrageurs held long positions in General Motors (GM) convertible bonds and short positions in GM stock. The expectation was that the present value of GM stocks would fall, but the debt will continue to earn revenues. However, the debt began to be downgraded by the credit rating agenciesCredit Rating AgenciesCredit rating agencies (CRAs) evaluate and rate the creditworthiness of debt securities and their issuers, including companies and countries.read more.
A billionaire investor attempted to make a bulk purchase of their stocks, causing the strategies of fund managers to be a tailspin.
Convertible Arbitrage faces the following risks –
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- Credit Risk: Most convertible bonds can be below investment grade or not rated at all, promising extraordinary returns. Hence a significant default riskDefault RiskDefault risk is a form of risk that measures the likelihood of not fulfilling obligations, such as principal or interest repayment, and is determined mathematically based on prior commitments, financial conditions, market conditions, liquidity position, and current obligations, among other factors.read more exists.Interest Rate Risk: Convertible bonds with longer maturity are sensitive to interest rates. While stocks with a short position are a solid hedging strategyHedging StrategyHedging is a type of investment that works like insurance and protects you from any financial losses. Hedging is achieved by taking the opposing position in the market.read more, lower hedge ratios may require additional protection.Manager Risk: The manager may incorrectly value a Convertible bond resulting in the arbitrage strategy being questioned. If the valuations are wrong and/or credit riskCredit RiskCredit risk is the probability of a loss owing to the borrower’s failure to repay the loan or meet debt obligations. It refers to the possibility that the lender may not receive the debt’s principal and an interest component, resulting in interrupted cash flow and increased cost of collection.read more increases, the value from bond conversion could be reduced/eliminated. Manager risk is also inclusive of the firm’s operational riskOperational RiskOperational risk is the business uncertainty a company comes across in the industry while executing its everyday business operations. Such risks arise due to internal system breakdown, technical issues, external factors, managerial problems, human errors or information gap. read more. The manager’s ability to enter/exit a position with minimal market impact will directly impact profitability.Legal Provision & Prospectus Risk: The prospectus provides many potential risks arising in such strategies as early call,special dividendsSpecial DividendsThe term “Special Dividend” refers to an amount distributed to shareholders in the name of a dividend that is in addition to the regular dividend. Companies do this in the event of an unexpected inflow of cash or assets.read more expected, late interest payment in the event of a call, etc. Convertible arbitrageurs can best protect themselves by being aware of the potential pitfalls and adjusting the hedge types to adjust such risks. One also needs to be aware of the legal implications and volatility applicable in the stock and bond markets.Currency Risks: Convertible arbitrage opportunities often cross multiple borders, involving multiple currencies and exposing various positions to currency risks. Arbitrageurs will thus need to employ currency futuresCurrency FuturesCurrency futures are contracts where two parties agree to exchange a specified quantity of a specific currency at a pre-agreed price on a specified date. They are traded over exchange and settled or reversed before the maturity date.read more or forward contracts to hedge such risks.
Convertible Arbitrage Example
Let’s take a practical example of how a convertible arbitrage will work:
The initial price of a convertible bond is $108. The arbitrage manager decides to make an initial cash investmentCash InvestmentCash investment is the investment in short-term instruments or saving account generally for 90 days or less that usually carries a low rate of interest or the return with a comparatively low rate of risk compared to other forms of investment.read more of $202,500 + $877,500 of borrowed funds = Total investment of $1,080,000. In this case, the debt to equity ratioDebt To Equity RatioThe debt to equity ratio is a representation of the company’s capital structure that determines the proportion of external liabilities to the shareholders’ equity. It helps the investors determine the organization’s leverage position and risk level. read more, will be 4.33:1 (Debt being 4.33 times the equity investment amount).
The share price is at 26.625 per share, and the manager shorts 26,000 shares costing $692,250. Also, a Hedge ratio of 75% is to be maintained; therefore, the bond’s conversion ratio will be (26,000/ 0.75) = 34,667 shares.
We shall assume a 1-year holding period.
The Total return can be shown with the help of the below table:
Cash Flow in Convertible Arbitrage
Arbitrage Return
The sources of the ROE can be shown with the help of the below table:
Convertible Arbitrage Fund Manager’s Expectations
In general, convertible arbitrageurs look for convertibles that exhibit the following characteristics:
- High Volatility – An underlying stock demonstrating above-average volatility is more likely to earn higher profits and adjust the hedge ratio.Low Conversion Premium – A conversion premium is an additional amount paid for convertible security over its conversion value measured in %. In general, a convertible with a conversion premium of 25% and below the same is preferred. A lower conversion premium indicates lower interest rate riskInterest Rate RiskThe risk of an asset’s value changing due to interest rate volatility is known as interest rate risk. It either makes the security non-competitive or makes it more valuable. read more and credit sensitivity, which are more difficult to hedge than equity risk.Low or No Stock dividendStock DividendA stock dividend refers to bonus shares paid to shareholders instead of cash. Companies resort to such dividends when there is a cash crunch. Shareholders are allotted a certain percentage of shareholding.read more on the Underlying shares – Since the hedge position is short on the underlying shares, any dividend on the stock must be paid to the long stock owner since the strategy’s anticipation is the falling share price. Such an instance will create a negative cash flowNegative Cash FlowNegative cash flow refers to the situation when cash spending of the company is more than cash generation in a particular period under consideration. This implies that the total cash inflow from the various activities under consideration is less than the total outflow during the same period.read more in the hedge.High Gamma – High gamma means how rapidly the delta changes. Delta is the ratio comparing the change in the price of an underlying asset to the corresponding change in the price of a derivative contractDerivative ContractDerivative Contracts are formal contracts entered into between two parties, one Buyer and the other Seller, who act as Counterparties for each other, and involve either a physical transaction of an underlying asset in the future or a financial payment by one party to the other based on specific future events of the underlying asset. In other words, the value of a Derivative Contract is derived from the underlying asset on which the Contract is based.read more. A convertible with a high gamma offers dynamic hedging opportunities more frequently, thus offering the possibility of higher returns.Under-Valued Convertible – Since the hedged convertible position is long, the arbitrageur will seek issues undervalued or trading at implied volatility levelsTrading At Implied Volatility LevelsImplied Volatility refers to the metric that is used in order to know the likelihood of the changes in the prices of the given security as per the point of view of the market. It is calculated by putting the market price of the option in the Black-Scholes model.read more below average market returns. If the convertible possesses the future of coming back to normal returns, then this will be an appropriate opportunity for the manager to cash in.Liquidity – Highly liquid Issues are preferred by the arbitrageur since they can be used for quickly establishing or closing a position.
Convertible Arbitrage Common Trades
There are many convertible arbitrage trades, but some of the common ones are:
- Synthetic Puts: These are highly equity-sensitive trades with “in-the-money” trading conversions of less than 10% premiums. These are convertibles with a high delta, reasonable credit quality, and a solid bond floor. The bond floor is the rate the bonds are offering and is a fixed rate of return (a bond component of convertible security based on its credit quality, expressed in %).Gamma Trades: Such trades arise by establishing a delta-neutral or possibly biased position involving convertible security with reasonable credit quality and the simultaneous short sale of the stock. Since such stocks are volatile due to their nature, this strategy requires careful monitoring by dynamically hedging the position, i.e., continuous buying/selling shares of the underlying common stock.Vega Trades: “volatility trades” involves establishing a long positionLong PositionLong position denotes buying of a stock, currency or commodity in the hope that the future price will get higher from the present price. The security can be bought in the cash market or in the derivative market. The course of action suggests that the investor or the trader is expecting an upward movement of the stock from is prevailing levels.read more in the convertibles and selling appropriately matched call options of the underlying stock trading at high volatility levels. This also requires careful monitoring of the positions involving listed call options as the call option strike priceOptions As The Call Option Strike PriceExercise price or strike price refers to the price at which the underlying stock is purchased or sold by the persons trading in the options of calls & puts available in the derivative trading. Thus, the exercise price is a term used in the derivative market.read more and the expirations must match as close as possible to the terms of the convertible security.Cash Flow Trades: Such trades aim to garner maximum cash flows from the arbitrage opportunities. This strategy focuses on convertible securitiesConvertible SecuritiesConvertible securities are securities or investments (preferred stocks or convertible bonds) that can be easily converted into a different form, such as shares of an entity’s common stock, and are typically issued by entities to raise money. In most cases, the entity has complete control over when the conversion occurs.read more with a good coupon or dividend income relative to the underlying common stock dividend and conversion premium. It offers profitable trading alternatives where the coupon from the long position or dividend/rebate from the short position offsets the premium paid over time.
Also, look at Top Hedge Fund StrategiesHedge Fund StrategiesHedge fund strategies are a set of principles or instructions followed by a hedge fund in order to protect themselves against the movements of stocks or securities in the market and to make a profit on a very small working capital without risking the entire budget.read more
Conclusion
The convertible arbitrage strategy has produced attractive returns over the past two decades, which are not correlated with the individual performance of the bond or the equity market. The deciding factor for the success of such a strategy is the manager risk rather than directional equity or bond market risk. High leverage is a potential risk factor since it can reduce earned returns.
In 2005, investor redemptions significantly impacted the strategy’s returns, although the maximum drawdownDrawdownA drawdown is defined as the percentage of decline in the value of a security over a period before it bounces back to the original value or beyond. It is expressed as the difference between the highest, i.e., the peak value of that asset, and the lowest, i.e., the trough value of the same.read more remains significantly less compared to traditional equity and bond markets. This is in contrast to the good performance of the convertible arbitrage strategy during 2000-02, when the markets were highly volatile due to the dot com crisis. The strategy still appears to be a good portfolio hedge in situations of volatility.
It is essential to continuously monitor the markets and take advantage of situations whereby the bond/stock is undervalued. The bond returns will be fixed, which keeps the manager in a relatively safer position but is required to predict the market volatility also to maximize their returns and extract maximum benefit from simultaneous hold and sell strategies. Such strategies are known to be very beneficial in choppy market conditions since one is required to take advantage of price differences.
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