Credit Analysis Definition

Credit Analysis Process

The below diagram shows the overall Credit Analysis Process.

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What does a Credit Analyst look for?

In layman’s terms, Credit analysis is more about identifying risks in situations where the bank observes a potential for lending. Both quantitative and qualitative assessment forms a part of the overall appraisal of the clients (company/individual). This generally helps to determine the entity’s debt-servicing capacity or its ability to repay.

Ever wondered why bankers ask so many questions and make you fill out so many forms when you apply for a loan? Don’t some of them feel intrusive and repetitive, and the whole process of submission of various documents seems cumbersome. You try to fathom what they do with all this data and what they are trying to ascertain! It is not only your deadly charm and attractive personality that makes you a good potential borrower; obviously, there is more to that story. So here, we will try to get an idea about what a Credit Analyst is looking for.

The 5 C’s of Credit Analysis

Character

  • This is where the general impression of the protective borrower is analyzed. The lender forms a very subjective opinion about the trustworthiness of the entity to repay the loan. Discrete inquiries, background, experience level, market opinion, and various other sources can be a way to collect qualitative information. Then an opinion can be formed, whereby he can decide about the entity’s character.

Capacity

  • Capacity refers to the ability of the borrower to service the loan from the profits generated by his investments. The lender will calculate exactly how the repayment is supposed to take place, cash flow from the businessCash Flow From The BusinessCash Flow is the amount of cash or cash equivalent generated & consumed by a Company over a given period. It proves to be a prerequisite for analyzing the business’s strength, profitability, & scope for betterment. read more, the timing of repayment, probability of successful repayment of the loan, payment history, and such factors, are considered to arrive at the probable capacity of the entity to repay the loan. This is perhaps the most important of the five factors.

Capital

  • Capital is the borrower’s skin in the business. This is seen as proof of the borrower’s commitment to the business. This indicates how much the borrower is at risk if the business fails. Lenders expect a decent contribution from the borrower’s assets and a personal financial guaranteeFinancial GuaranteeA financial guarantee is a promise undertaken by a third party to cover any financial obligation of another organization or individual, acting as a guarantor for any unpaid financial debts. If the concerned party is unavailable, authorities contact guarantors.read more to establish that they have committed their funds before asking for any funding. Good capital goes on to strengthen the trust between the lender and the borrower.

Collateral (or Guarantees)

  • Collateral security is often used to offset distasteful factors that may have come to the forefront during the assessment process. Collateral is a form of security that the borrower provides to the lender to appropriate the loan in case it is not repaid from the returns established at the time of availing the facility. Guarantees, on the other hand, are documents promising the repayment of the loan from someone else (generally a family member or friend) if the borrower fails to repay the loan. Getting adequate collateral or guarantees may deem fit to partly or wholly cover the loan amount bears huge significance. This is a way to mitigate the default riskDefault RiskDefault risk is a form of risk that measures the likelihood of not fulfilling obligations, such as principal or interest repayment, and is determined mathematically based on prior commitments, financial conditions, market conditions, liquidity position, and current obligations, among other factors.read more. Many times, Collateral security is also used to offset any distasteful factors that may have come to the forefront during the assessment process.

Conditions

  • Conditions describe the purpose of the loan and the terms under which the facility is sanctioned. Purposes can be Working capital, purchase of additional equipment, inventory, or long term investmentLong Term InvestmentLong Term Investments are financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, cash, or real estate assets that a company intends to hold for more than 365 days in order to maximize profits and are reported on the asset side of the balance sheet under the heading non-current assets.read more. The lender considers various factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, currency positions, and industry health, before putting forth the conditions for the facility.

Credit Analysis Case Study

From time immemorial, there has been an eternal conflict between entrepreneurs/people in business and bankers regarding the quantification of credit. The resentment on the part of the business owner arises when he believes that the banker might not be fully appreciating his business requirements/needs and might be underestimating the real scale of opportunity that is accessible to him, provided he gets a sufficient quantum of loan. However, the credit analyst might have reasons to justify the amount of risk he is ready to bear, including bad experiences with that particular sector or his assessment of the business requirements. Many times there are also internal norms or regulations which force the analyst to follow a more restrictive discourse.

The most important point to realize is that banks are in the business of selling money, and therefore risk regulation and restraint are very fundamental to the whole process. Therefore, the loan products available to prospective customers, the terms and conditions set for availing of the facility, and the steps taken by the bank to protect its assets against default all have a direct forbearanceForbearanceForbearance is an arrangement in which the lender temporarily suspends or reduces mortgage or loan repayments by the borrower.read more to the proper assessment of the credit facilityCredit FacilityCredit Facility is a pre-approved bank loan facility to businesses allowing them to borrow the capital amount as & when needed for their long-term/short-term requirements without having to re-apply for a loan each time. read more.

So, let’s have a look at what does a loan proposal looks like:

The exact nature of proposals may vary depending on subsequent clients, but the elements are generally the same.

**To put things into perspective, let’s consider the example of Sanjay Sallaya, who is credited with being one of the biggest defaulters in recent history, along with being one of the biggest businessmen in the world. He owns multiple companies, some sports franchises, and a few bungalows in all major cities.

  • Who is the client? Ex. Sanjay Sallaya, a reputed industrialist, owns the majority share in XYZ ltd. and others.They were starting a new airline division, which would cater to the high-end segment of society. Quantum of credit they need and when? Ex. Credit demand is $25 mil, needed over the next six months.The specific purpose the credit will be employed for? Ex. Acquiring new aircraft and capital for daily operations like fuel costs, staff payments, airport parking charges, etc.Ways and means to service the debt obligations (which include application and processing fees, interest, principal, and other statutory charges) Ex. Revenue is generated from flight operations, freight delivery, and freight delivery.What protection (collateral) can the client provide in the event of default? Ex. Multiple bungalows in prime locations are offered as collateral, along with the personal guaranteePersonal GuaranteeA personal guarantee is an agreement between three parties – lender, borrower, and guarantor, whereby the guarantor has legal binding attached to him to repay the lender and honour the loan agreement if the borrower defaults.read more of Sanjay Sallaya, one of the most reputed businessmen in the world.What are the key areas of the business, and how are they operated and monitored? Ex. Detailed reports would be provided on all key metrics related to the business.

Answers to these questions help the credit analyst to understand the broad risks associated with the proposed loan. These questions provide basic information about the client and help the analyst get deeper into the business and understand its intrinsic risks.

Credit Analyst – Obtaining Quantitative Data from the Clients

Other than the above questions, the analyst also needs to obtain quantitative data specific to the client:

  • Borrower’s history – A brief background of the company, its capital structure, its founders, stages of development, plans for growth, list of customers, suppliers, service providers, management structure, products, and all such information are exhaustively collected to form a fair and just opinion about the company.Market Data – The specific industry trends, size of the market, market share, assessment of competition, competitive advantagesCompetitive AdvantagesCompetitive advantage refers to an advantage availed by a company that has remained successful in outdoing its competitors belonging to the same industry by designing and implementing effective strategies that allow the same in offering quality goods or services, quoting reasonable prices to its customers, maximizing the wealth of its stakeholders and so on and as a result of which the company can make more profits, build a positive brand reputation, make more sales, maximize return on assets, etc.read more,  marketing, public relations, and relevant future trends are studied to create a holistic expectation of future movements and needs.Financial Information – Financial statementsFinancial StatementsFinancial statements are written reports prepared by a company’s management to present the company’s financial affairs over a given period (quarter, six monthly or yearly). These statements, which include the Balance Sheet, Income Statement, Cash Flows, and Shareholders Equity Statement, must be prepared in accordance with prescribed and standardized accounting standards to ensure uniformity in reporting at all levels.read more (Best case/ expected case/ worst case), Tax returns, company valuations and appraisal of assets, current balance sheet, credit referencesCredit ReferencesA Credit Reference is a document verifying an individual or business’s creditworthiness. It is similar to a job reference.read more, and all similar documents which can provide an insight into the financial health of the company are scrutinized in great detail.Schedules and exhibits – Certain key documents, such as agreements with vendors and customers, insurance policies, leaseLeaseLeasing is an arrangement in which the asset’s right is transferred to another person without transferring the ownership. In simple terms, it means giving the asset on hire or rent. The person who gives the asset is “Lessor,” the person who takes the asset on rent is “Lessee.”read more agreements, and pictures of the products or sites, should be appended to the loan proposal as proof of the specifics as judged by the indicators mentioned above.

**It must be understood that the credit analyst, once convinced, will act as the client’s advocate in presenting the application to the bank’s loan committee and also guiding it through the bank’s internal procedures. The details obtained are also used to finalize the loan documentation, terms, rates, and any special covenants which need to be stipulated, keeping in mind the business framework of the client as well the macroeconomic factorsMacroeconomic FactorsMacroeconomic factors are those that have a broad impact on the national economy, such as population, income, unemployment, investments, savings, and the rate of inflation, and are monitored by highly professional teams governed by the government or other economists.read more.

Credit Analysis – Judgement

After collating all the information, now the analyst has to make the real “Judgement” regarding the different aspects of the proposal, which will be presented to the sanctioning committee:

  • Loan – After understanding the client’s need, one of the many types of loans, can be tailored to suit the client’s needs. The amount of money, the maturity of the loan, and the expected use of proceeds can be fixed, depending upon the industry’s nature and the creditworthinessCreditworthinessCreditworthiness is a measure of judging the loan repayment history of borrowers to ascertain their worth as a debtor who should be extended a future credit or not. For instance, a defaulter’s creditworthiness is not very promising, so the lenders may avoid such a debtor out of the fear of losing their money. Creditworthiness applies to people, sovereign states, securities, and other entities whereby the creditors will analyze your creditworthiness before getting a new loan.read more of the company.Company – The market share of the company, products and services offered, major suppliers, clients, and competitors, should be analyzed to ascertain its dependence on such factors.Credit History – The past is an important parameter to predict the future. Therefore, keeping in line with this conventional wisdom, the client’s past credit accounts should be analyzed to check for any irregularities or defaults. This also allows the analyst to judge the client we are dealing with by checking the number of times late payments were made or what penalties were imposed due to non-compliance with stipulated norms.Analysis of market – Analysis of the concerned market is of utmost importance as this helps us identify and evaluate the company’s dependency on external factors. Market structure, size, and demand of the concerned client’s product are important factors that analysts are concerned with.

Credit Analysis Ratios

A company’s financials contain the exact picture of what the business is going through, and this quantitative assessment bears the utmost significance. Analysts consider various ratios and financial instrumentsFinancial InstrumentsFinancial instruments are certain contracts or documents that act as financial assets such as debentures and bonds, receivables, cash deposits, bank balances, swaps, cap, futures, shares, bills of exchange, forwards, FRA or forward rate agreement, etc. to one organization and as a liability to another organization and are solely taken into use for trading purposes.read more to arrive at the true picture of the company.

  • Liquidity ratios – These ratios deal with the ability of the company to repay its creditors, expenses, etc. These ratios are used to determine the company’s cash generation capacity. A profitable company does not imply that it will meet all its financial commitments.Solvability ratios – These ratios deal with the balance sheet itemsBalance Sheet ItemsAssets such as cash, inventories, accounts receivable, investments, prepaid expenses, and fixed assets; liabilities such as long-term debt, short-term debt, Accounts payable, and so on are all included in the balance sheet.read more and are used to judge the future path that the company may follow.Solvency ratios – Solvency ratios are used to judge the risk involved in the business. These ratios take into the picture the increasing amount of debts, which may adversely affect the company’s long-term solvency of the companySolvency Of The CompanySolvency of a company means its ability to meet the long term financial commitments, continue its operation in the foreseeable future and achieve long term growth. It indicates that the entity will conduct its business with ease.read more.Profitability ratios – Profitability ratios show the ability of a company to earn a satisfactory profit over time.Efficiency ratios – These ratios provide insight into the management’s ability to earn a return on the capital involved and the control they have on the expenses.Cash flow and projected cash flow analysis – A cash flow statement is one of the most important instruments available to a Credit Analyst, as this helps him to gauge the exact nature of revenue and profit flow. This helps him get a true picture of the movement of money in and out of business.Collateral analysis – Any security provided should be marketable, stable, and transferable. These factors are highly important as a failure on any of these fronts will lead to the complete failure of this obligation.SWOT analysis – SWOT AnalysisSWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis is an analytical tool to identify and evaluate an entity’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.read more is again a subjective analysis done to align expectations and current reality with market conditions.

If you wish to learn more about financial analysis, then click here for this amazing Financial Statement analysis guide.

Credit Rating

A credit rating is a quantitative method using statistical models to assess creditworthiness based on the borrower’s information. Most banking institutions have their rating mechanism. This is done to judge under which risk categoryRisk CategoryRisks are categorized as per the business activities of the organization. They provide a structured overview of the underlying and potential risks faced by them. The most commonly used risk classifications include strategic, financial, operational, people, regulatory and finance.read more the borrower falls. This also helps determine the term and conditions, and various models use multiple quantitative and qualitative fields to judge the borrower. Many banks also use external rating agencies such as Moody’s, Fitch, S&P, etc. to rate borrowers, which then forms an important basis for consideration of the loan.

Lesson Learned – Mr. Sanjay Sallaya

So, let’s illustrate the whole exercise with the help of the example of Mr. Sanjay Sallaya, a liquor Barron and a hugely respected industrialist who also owns a few sports franchises and has bungalows in the most expensive locals. He now wants to start his airline and has therefore approached you for a loan to finance the same.

The loan is for a meager $1 million. So, as credit analysts, we have to assess whether or not to go forward with the proposal. To begin, we will obtain all the required documents to understand the business model, working plan, and other details of his new proposed business. Necessary inspections and enquires are undertaken to validate the integrity of his documents. A TEV, i.e., Techno-Economic Viability, can also be undertaken to get an opinion from the aviation industry experts about the plan’s viability.

When we are finally satisfied with the overall efficacy of the plan, we can discuss the securities that will collaterally cover our loan (partly/fully). If it meets all other aspects, such a proposal can be presented for sanction comfortably and generally enjoys good terms from the bank’s side as the risk associated with such personalities is always assessed to be less. Mr. Sanjay Sallaya, a well-established industrialist, holds a good reputation in the business world and, therefore, will make good recommendations.

Therefore, to conclude, Mr. Sanjay Sallaya will get a loan of $1 million approved and will go on to start his airline business. However, what the future holds can never be predicted when a loan is sanctioned.

also, check out the difference between Equity Research vs. Credit ResearchEquity Research Vs. Credit ResearchEquity research is concerned with determining the price of a firm’s stock or shares through valuation of a publicly traded corporation, whereas credit research is more technical and complex and focuses on bonds and interest rates.read more

Conclusion

As a Credit analyst, two days in life are never the same. Credit Analysis is about making decisions while keeping in mind the past, present, and future. The role offers a plethora of opportunities to learn and understand different types of businesses as one engages with a multitude of clients hailing from different sectors. The career is monetarily rewarding and helps an individual grow, along with providing good opportunities to build one’s career.

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